The projections of heat wave cases in Ukraine in the 21st century
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2713.114.10Keywords:
heat wave, heat wave projections, heat wave magnitude index, Ukraine, climate changeAbstract
Background. Heat waves (HW) are well known for their negative impact on human health. HWs can also lead to droughts, forest fires, reduced or lost crops, significant stress on energy systems, destruction of infrastructure facilities and therefore to significant economic losses. According to climate projections, a further increase in air temperature and the frequency of HWs are expected in the coming decades in many parts of the world. This study aims to assess the heat waves that may occur within the territory of Ukraine through the 21st century in terms of number, duration, and intensity based on RCP scenarios.
Methods. A 90th percentile threshold approach was used to determine HW, and HW intensity was assessed using the daily heat wave magnitude index (HWMId). The analysis was conducted using a high-resolution regional climate model from the EURO-CORDEX system (the grid resolution of the used simulation is 0.22 degrees) under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.
Results. The results of the study indicate that the frequency of HWs will increase significantly in Ukraine under the high emissions scenario RCP8.5. The number of HWs is expected to more than double by the middle of the 21st century and to increase more than 2.5 times by 2071–2099 compared to the reference period. The duration of HWs will also increase, with the average duration expected to increase by approximately 1.5–2 times by the end of the century compared to the reference period, and the maximum duration by 2–3 times. Under the optimistic RCP2.6 scenario, the frequency and duration of HWs will increase in the near and mid-term future. The rate of increase in the number of HWs under the RCP2.6 scenario will stabilize by the end of the century but the total number of HWs will be higher than in the reference period, duration of HWs will even decrease slightly across almost the entire territory of Ukraine compared to the reference period by the end of the century.
Conclusions. The findings indicate that HW episodes in Ukraine will not only become more frequent in the future, but also longer and more intense, especially if greenhouse gas emissions remain high. The results of this study highlight the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation measures to heat in Ukraine. The projected changes provide a scientific basis for the development and improvement of climate-resilient urban planning, the Heat Health Warning System and adaptation strategies in Ukraine.
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