Assessment of the impact of global climate change on river water resources and modeling of water consumption regulation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2713.113.09Keywords:
climate change, water resources, water consumption, temperature, decrease, water scarcityAbstract
Background. It is very difficult to deny or confirm the impact of climate change on the existing water resources of the republic, as there are very few reliable facts and data available. However, the undeniable fact is that climate factors change over a large period of time. One of the main indicators of climate change is the decrease in the number of cold autumn-winter days, the increase in the number of hot spring-summer days and the periodic occurrence of drought on the plain areas of the country.
Objective: Study of global climate change, its causes and consequences; assessment of the existing water resources in the country and the state of their use; assessment of the impact of global climate change on the existing water resources of the republic; forecasting the impact of climate change on water management for the near, medium and long term; application of a scientifically based approach and modeling of water resource consumption for the purpose of efficient use of water resources, as well as determination of the upper, average and lower limits of consumption.
Methods. Shewart control chart and extrapolation and summation of the water consumption methods are used.
Results. The analysis shows that the change in the dynamics of water resources is related to the increase and decrease in water taken from the river, changes in natural climatic factors, mainly the amount of precipitation over the years. The decrease in the domestic consumption of rivers does not at all give grounds to conclude that their natural flow consumption has decreased. An example of this is the floods that occurred in the Kura and Araz rivers in 2003 and 2010. In short, due to the number of anomalous events in nature, they can be considered a "product" of global climate change.
Conclusions. We came to the conclusion that the water consumption varies from year to year and depends on many factors, such as climate changes, population growth, industrial, and agricultural use. Analysis of existing meteorological data shows that nature is full of surprises, various natural phenomena, including severe and persistent droughts, can occur unexpectedly. To be ready for it, one of the important conditions is to gradually increase existing water resources, create watersaving techniques and technologies, and develop new agrotechnical measures.
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